Here are my Mobile predictions for Australia in 2009.  They are naturally leaning towards Mobile Web and Mobile Advertising, as that’s really my thing.  If you’re interested in more general, global trends, check out the links at the bottom of this article. 

 

1. Everybody builds an App Store

Everybody will want an app store in 2009.  The iPhone App Store has had more than 300 million downloads globally, with more than 10k apps available as of early December 08.  

The appeal of the iPhone App Store is the large, consistent user base, the built in business model and the ‘one-click’ path to getting an application onto a mobile handset.

The iPhone App Store works because:

• It’s dead easy for users.  They just get it.
  
• Apple’s marketing machine has guaranteed enough users to warrant the effort that goes into building an application
• All of the users have the same handset, which means the application only needs to be built once.
• The significant user base is distributed globally, so the development community that can be encouraged to build for the App Store is also large, and global
  
• There is a built-in revenue model for sales of applications through the App Store and plug-ins to immediately enable advertising revenue
  
• Apple controls the quality of the applications that are created AND provide the tools to make it easy to develop software to their standards
  
•  There is a comprehensive SDK (software development kit) including tools, simulators and an active developer community online, all of which make the iPhone easy to build for
  
• It’s cool, and companies / brands / developers want to be seen there!
  

2009 will bring a variety of me-too App Store experiences, some of which we will see in Australia.  Major handset manufacturers will launch their alternative, similar models. (Palm has already launched a software store, RIM is set to do so in March).  Some will fail, but others will find their niche.  In Australia one or more of the telco carriers will jump on the bandwagon, and depending on their approach, will almost certainly fail. 

No Australian telco has enough (any?) of the advantages described above to make a completely open App Store work.  Assuming the Telco can find local developers, provide sufficient incentives to build for a local audience in a fragmented handset market, while funding the internal resources needed to nurture the community and monitor, test & approve the applications being produced…. then some success may be seen.  But I doubt it!

 

2. Mobile Web Usage Tips Over (almost)

I’ve seen a number of articles about the Mobile Web explosion we had last year.  Maybe in the US or Europe, but I don’t think we saw it in Australia.   In 2009 we will finally see Australia reach the (almost) tipping point for mobile web.  It’s fair to say we won’t ALL be browsing the internet from our mobiles, but by the end of 2009 it will be at least as common as MMS is now.

We will see a rush of Australian online properties make their first forays into the mobile channel.  In the face of this increased competition, those who are already there (News, Fairfax, NineMSN, LP, ABC, CarSales, Sensis) will make a lot more noise.  The classifieds space will start to wake up to the possibilities and we’ll see a lot more from employment & real estate. Carsales & Drive are already there, and Sensis’ Trading Post mobile launched late in 2008. 

With local properties acting as a magnet for the channel, users will find themselves exploring mobile further and discovering the wealth of content & applications available globally.  Mobile search engines will contribute to this growth.  Where there are users there are opportunists, and we will see a barrage of content suitable for mobile being published in the latter half of 2009 to take advantage of this eagerly awaited surge in usage.

Applications will play a big part in this usage surge and mobile site owners will take advantage of the trend with ‘bookmarklets’ – pseudo apps that effectively place a button on your handset that loads a mobile website.

The iPhone and other smart devices won’t do usage any harm of course, and further improvements to data plans from Telcos will see us begin to drift away from the horrors of bill shock. 

2009 will see usage, content, devices & telcos all coming together to make the mobile web truly relevant in Australia.

 

3. We Hear a Lot More about Mobile Ad Networks

Users + Content = Advertising. 

In Australia to date a small number of major players have controlled most of the mobile usage and thus the revenue that can be earned from advertising.

The telcos (Telstra, Optus, Vodafone, 3) along with Fairfax, News & NineMSN own the properties that earn the bulk of targetable Australian mobile traffic.  Major brands like Google, Microsoft & Nokia pick up a fair bit and have their own advertising solutions.

The rest of the traffic is spread across the very long tail of global & independent mobile sites.

Each of the telcos sells advertising on their mobile portals as do the major publishers.  Advertisers can buy Google Mobile Adwords targeting Australia and at least one global mobile ad network (AdMob) can be used to reach a significant amount of off-deck / long tail traffic in Australia. 

With the exception of one or two independent mobile site publishers, these have been the Advertiser’s only options to reach mobile users in Australia to date.

With usage and content growth expected in 2009, we are set to see one or more of the following mobile ad network moves:

1. Telcos extend their mobile networks to include (more) independent mobile sites.

     Telstra’s MediaSmart has already tested the water, extending its mobile network beyond the Sensis & BigPond family.  I suspect we will see a lot more of this in 2009.

2. Online Ad networks extend coverage to include mobile properties.

Online Ad Network Max Interactive have launched Max Mobile, initially only offering advertising on the 3 portal – for now.  This is the start of things to come though.  After all, if online networks do not embrace the mobile versions of web properties they represent – who will? 

3. Global Mobile Ad networks look at Australia

Globally there are a number of big mobile ad players (Yahoo, Google, Microsoft) and numerous niche mobile ad networks (eg. AdMob, DeckTrade, Smaato, AdModa, Buzz City) many of which already offer targeting of Australian mobile traffic.  To date
ion st=”on”>Australia has seen little focus from these global players, other than AdMob who has a significant amount of Australian traffic already.  In 2009 will see some activity here.  Google will add more Australian publishers to their mobile content network and some of the niche networks will pick up local partners or publishers.

4. Local Mobile-specific Ad Networks emerge

In 2009 we will see one or more start up companies launching in Australia with the goal of aggregating ad serving within mobile content.  More mobile content means there could be a genuine need here, but the real opportunity is in building the network, thus becoming an acquisition target for the larger global mobile or local online ad networks.

 

4. Australian Ad Industry puts Mobile on The Radar

With all this activity and advertising opportunity, 2009 will be the year our local agencies start to take mobile seriously.  The advertising industry will start to consider mobile more often and earlier in the planning process (but not yet often enough or early enough for my liking!).

Digital agencies will realise they are not truly digital if they don’t offer mobile services, and we will see mobile experts being hired and trained with increasing frequency.

Media planners will be expected to know what’s available in mobile media buying and mobile specific agencies will flourish while digital and traditional agencies figure the space out.  Mobile specialists will either do well or be absorbed / acquired.   Advertisers will start to ask for mobile and in some cases will even know what it is they are asking for!  

Unfortunately 2009 will also be the year of the “Epic FAIL” mobile campaign.  Agencies & advertisers will go it alone, believing they know what works (It’s just the web on a small screen right?) and spend money on campaigns that don’t deliver. 

Tacking on mobile at the last minute will be rife and we will see horrible mistakes like SMS campaigns pushing full screen web URLs, QR codes that are too big/small/fuzzy to scan and downloadable apps that cost $150k to build and get no usage. There will be talk of mobile being all hype and no reality. 

But we’ll also see some really smart & innovative mobile advertising. This will be the year we move beyond ‘banners and brochureware’ and see mobile integrated across digital & traditional channels and applied in scenarios where it’s undeniably perfect – direct, targeted, measurable, interactive conversations. 

The global economic downturn will be good for mobile advertising, as it costs less to reach the right people via mobile. Where the target audience makes sense, many advertisers will sacrifice broadcast media for direct, targeted campaigns with mobile integrated.

There will be a mobile story in every issue of every advertising & marketing publication in Australia in 2009.  Yes, everyone will jump on the mobile bandwagon (and don’t I love it!)

All in all 2009 will be an industry defining year for mobile advertising in Australia.

 

Thinks I’d like to see, but probably won’t just yet:

- Everyone stops caring about getting on the carrier / telco deck

- Consistent Mobile Advertising Guidelines are adopted by all the major publishers & carriers

- Brands start building content & sites for mobile first, and not the other way around

- Mobile Search becomes as ubiquitous as online search and takes over from portals

- Australian mobile content developers make a lot of money (sorry it’s not this year guys)

 

What other people think

 I put the word out and got some input from a few other notable Aussie Mobilistas.

Shane Williamson, Founder, Mobile Monday Sydney

• 2009 will not see a decline in mobile sales overall in Australia as the GFC will not effect the market greatly. Mobile devices are too important to people to get the chop.
• With the maturing of Unified Communicatons, smartphones will be the driving force of higher end mobile data use into the enterprise.
  
• A key factor to uptake will be fixed to mobile convergence (FMC) of voice services to mobile devices. This is the ability to use mobiles to access traditonal enterprise PBX services and applications.
  

 Tim Parsons, Founder, Mobile Monday Sydney

• channel confusion, some people will be e-mailing from their iPhone/Android/WindowsMobile/Blackberry, while others will still be SMSing. Expect some missed rendezvous while we decide what asynchronous messaging channel we should be on to connect with each person.
  
• on-deck revenues continue to rise, for perhaps another 18 months – 2 years, and then sharply decline as all the fun off-deck becomes too much to ignore
• the rise of uncapped data-plans and simultaneously super-social apps like ‘instant chat’ and xumii
• brands are starting to get serious about targeted marketing; mobile marketing will probably grow a bit faster and be more innovative this year.
  

Luke Janssen CEO TigerSpike

• Companies will go bust..
  
• Mobile Internet will become a no brainer..
  
• and much more on Luke’s blog
  

Tim Elwin, CEO, ToyPhone media

• MIM (Mobile Instant Messaging) is going to get bigger
  
• Mobile measurement will finally be a reality in Australi
  
• and a hot tip from Tim….. “..ensure that all staff, especially client facing staff in agencies are properly trained up on general mobile interaction”
  

A Few More Opinions with a Global Perspective 

MobHappy- Russell Buckley’s 2009 Predictions (1, 2 and 3) (4, 5 and 6) (7, 8, 9 and 10)

From MocoNews - How the big mobile stories of 2008 will play out

MTrends – Rudy de Waele’s Mobile and Wireless Predictions for 09

Chetan Sharma’s Mobile Industry Predictions 2009

MoMo London founder Daniel Applequist’s 2009 Predictions